NEWSWEEK Poll: Hillary Clinton Took the Heat at This Week's Democratic Debate and Emerged Undamaged The Latest NEWSWEEK Poll Exactly a Year Before Election Day, Clinton Favorite to Win the White House with 44 Percent of Overall Democratic Vote
WEB EXCLUSIVE By Brian Braiker
NEW YORK, Nov. 3 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ --
On Tuesday, at the eighth presidential debate among Democrats, front-runner Sen. Hillary Clinton came under withering fire from her top rivals, Sen. Barack Obama and former Sen. John Edwards. But the attacks didn't appear to do much damage, with her lead for the party's nomination unchanged, according to the latest Newsweek Poll. Almost exactly a year before Election Day, Clinton is also the favorite to win the White House-if only by a very small margin.
The New York senator gets 44 percent of the overall Democratic vote, compared to 24 percent for Obama (down a point since Newsweek's August poll) and 12 percent for Edwards (down two points). She is the first choice of 45 percent of self-identified Democrats (compared with 39 percent of Democratic "leaners"). She also trounces Obama among Democratic female voters (48 to 19 percent) and enjoys a marginal lead among male Democratic voters (38 to 32 percent). Obama runs better among younger Democratic voters and minorities.
Still, Obama and Edwards both run significantly stronger than Clinton among independents. For example, in a head-to-head match up against Republican contender Fred Thompson (who commands just 15 percent of GOP support), Clinton attracts 47 percent of the independent vote. Both Obama (56 percent) and Edwards (57 percent) draw a majority of the independent vote against the retired senator and "Law & Order' star.
On the other side of the aisle, former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani has also held his lead over his field of competitors with 30 percent of the Republican vote. And Thompson has slipped from a high point of 22 percent support in August to 15 percent today-although he remains ahead of both Sen. John McCain (14 percent) and Mitt Romney (12 percent). The only Republican to have gained ground since August is former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (at 7 percent, up from 2 percent). But, also like Clinton, Giuliani's support is strongest among registered party voters (at 31 percent), before it softens among voters who "lean" Republican (23 percent.).
When you pit the two parties against each other, Giuliani gives the three Democratic leaders a close race. He trails Clinton by four points (49 to 45 percent) and Edwards and Obama by three points (48 to 45 percent in each instance). Still, the unpopularity of President George W. Bush will be a significant obstacle for any Republican nominee to overcome. A 58 percent majority of all voters and two-thirds (66 percent) of independents say they have an unfavorable view of Bush.
But the poll results do somewhat call into question the Democratic frontrunner's electability come next November. Clinton's support tops out at 49 percent in trial heats against Giuliani, Thompson and Romney. Her four- point margin (49 percent to 45 percent) over Thompson and Romney is significantly less than Edwards and Obama's performance in those head-to- heads. Obama and Edwards both lead Romney by 53 to 37 percent. Edwards leads Thompson 53 to 39 percent; Obama leads him 52 to 39 percent.
If billionaire New York mayor Michael Bloomberg were to run as an independent, he'd do more to help the Democrats, according to the poll. In a three-way race against Clinton and Giuliani, Clinton leads with 44 percent to Giuliani's 38 percent and Bloomberg's 11 percent.
Evangelical Republican voters, meanwhile, do not appear to be gravitating toward one candidate in particular. Their support is divided among Giuliani (23 percent), McCain (17 percent), Thompson (15 percent), Huckabee (10 percent), and, lastly, Romney, who is Mormon (9 percent). Among Republicans who do not identify themselves as Evangelical Protestant, 34 percent are backing Giuliani, putting him well ahead of Thompson (15 percent) and Romney (14 percent).
Interestingly, this is shaping up to be an election where there is no single overriding issue that concerns voters. The economy and jobs actually come before the war in Iraq (22 to 19 percent), followed by health care (17 percent) and terrorism and national security (15 percent). Voters today are split on whether the situation is worsening in Iraq (29 percent) or improving (26 percent.) In August, 41 percent held the negative opinion; 16 percent thought the situation was improving.
This poll was conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International from Oct. 31 to Nov. 1. Telephone interviews were conducted with 1,002 registered voters. Registered voters were screened from a random-digit- dial (RDD) telephone sample of national adults. Registration status is self- reported. 77 percent of adults in the sample reported being registered. Results are weighted so that the sample demographics match Census Current Population Survey parameters for gender, age, education, race, region and population density. The overall margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4 percentage points for results based on 1,002 registered voters. Results based on smaller subgroups are subject to larger margins of sampling error.
Newsweek Poll
Election 2008 One Year Out
Princeton Survey Research Associates International
Final Topline Results
(11/2/07)
N = 1,002 registered voters
Margin of error: plus or minus 4
Interviewing dates: 10/31-11/1/07
Notes: Data are weighted so that sample demographics match Census Current Population Survey parameters for gender, age, education, race, region, and population density.
Results based on smaller subgroups are subject to larger margins of sampling error. Sample size and margins of error for these subgroups are included in a separate methodology statement.
An asterisk (*) indicates a value less than 1%.
Questions D2/D2a asked here (results posted at end of document).
1. Now I'm going to name seven Democratic presidential candidates.
After I read all the names, tell me which ONE you would most like to
see nominated as the Democratic Party's presidential candidate in
2008. The choices are ... (READ AND RANDOMIZE 1-7)
BASED ON REGISTERED DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
Total Dem Lean Dem 8/1-2/07 6/21/07(1)
43 Hillary Clinton 45 39 44 43
24 Barack Obama 25 23 23 27
12 John Edwards 11 14 14 14
4 Dennis Kucinich 3 6 2 3
4 Joe Biden 2 5 3 1
3 Bill Richardson 1 7 1 2
* Chris Dodd 0 1 1 1
* Other candidate (VOL.) * 0 1(2) 2(3)
3 None/No preference (VOL.) 4 2 4 *
7 Don't know 9 3 7 7
100 100 100 100 100
2. Now I'm going to name eight REPUBLICAN presidential candidates. After
I read all the names, tell me which ONE you would most like to see
nominated as the Republican Party's presidential candidate in 2008.
The choices are ... (READ AND RANDOMIZE 1-8)
BASED ON REGISTERED REPUBLICANS AND REPUBLICAN LEANERS
Total Rep Lean Rep 8/1-2/07 6/20-21/07
30 Rudy Giuliani 31 23 30 27
15 Fred Thompson 16 10 22 19
14 John McCain 13 18 13 15
12 Mitt Romney 12 11 10 12
7 Mike Huckabee 5 15 2 4
3 Ron Paul 2 5 2 2
2 Duncan Hunter 2 4 1 *
* Tom Tancredo * 2 1 1
* Other candidate
(VOL.) * 0 4(4) 7(5)
6 None/No preference (VOL.) 8 1 5 5
11 Don't know 11 11 10 8
100 100 100 100 100
READ INTRO TO Q3ab-Q11ab TO ALL RVs: (RV1=1,3): Now I'm going to describe some different choices of candidates voters might have in next year's general election for president. As I read each one, please tell me how you would vote if the election were being held TODAY.
Order randomized for questions 3ab-11ab.
3a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and Rudy Giuliani, the Republican. (Choices rotated) Who would you be more likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Clinton, the Democrat; or Giuliani, the Republican?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Clinton Total Giuliani Undec./Other
Current Total 49 45 6 =100
Red states (Bush in '04) 43 51 6 =100
Blue states (Kerry in '04) 54 40 6 =100
Trends
6/20-21/07 51 44 5 =100
5/2-3/07 49 46 5 =100
2/28-3/1/07 46 47 7 =100
1/24-25/07 49 46 5 =100
1/17-18/07 47 48 5 =100
12/6-7/06 48 47 5 =100
4a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between Barack Obama, the Democrat, and Rudy Giuliani, the Republican. (Choices rotated) Who would you be more likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Obama, the Democrat; or Giuliani, the Republican?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Obama Total Giuliani Undec./Other
Current Total 48 45 7 =100
Red states 43 50 7 =100
Blue states 52 40 8 =100
Trends
6/20-21/07 49 44 7 =100
5/2-3/07 50 43 7 =100
2/28-3/1/07 43 48 9 =100
1/24-25/07 47 44 9 =100
1/17-18/07 45 47 8 =100
12/6-7/06 44 47 9 =100
5a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between John Edwards, the Democrat; and Rudy Giuliani, the Republican. (Choices rotated) Who would you be more likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Edwards, the Democrat; or Giuliani, the Republican?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Edwards Total Giuliani Undec./Other
Current Total 48 45 7 =100
Red states 46 49 5 =100
Blue states 51 41 8 =100
Trends
6/20-21/07 48 46 6 =100
5/2-3/07 50 44 6 =100
2/28-3/1/07 45 47 8 =100
1/24-25/07 46 47 7 =100
1/17-18/07 48 45 7 =100
6a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between Hillary Clinton, the Democrat; and Mitt Romney, the Republican. (Choices rotated) Who would you be more likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Clinton, the Democrat; or Romney, the Republican?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Clinton Total Romney Undec./Other
Current Total 49 45 6 =100
Red states 43 51 6 =100
Blue states 55 39 6 =100
Trends
6/20-21/07 55 40 5 =100
5/2-3/07 57 35 8 =100
2/28-3/1/07 53 38 9 =100
1/24-25/07 56 37 7 =100
12/6-7/06 58 32 10 =100
7a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between Barack Obama, the Democrat; and Mitt Romney, the Republican. (Choices rotated) Who would you be more likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Obama, the Democrat; or Romney, the Republican?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Obama Total Romney Undec./Other
Current Total 53 37 10 =100
Red states 50 41 9 =100
Blue states 57 33 10 =100
Trends =100
6/20-21/07 53 37 10 =100
5/2-3/07 58 29 13 =100
2/28-3/1/07 54 34 12 =100
1/24-25/07 56 30 14 =100
12/6-7/06 55 25 20 =100
8a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between John Edwards, the Democrat; and Mitt Romney, the Republican. (Choices rotated) Who would you be more likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Edwards, the Democrat; or Romney, the Republican?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Edwards Total Romney Undec./Other
Current Total 53 37 10 =100
Red states 50 40 10 =100
Blue states 56 35 9 =100
Trends
6/20-21/07 57 36 7 =100
5/2-3/07 64 27 9 =100
2/28-3/1/07 58 30 12 =100
1/24-25/07 60 26 14 =100
9a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between Hillary Clinton, the Democrat; and Fred Thompson, the Republican. (Choices rotated) Who would you be more likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Clinton, the Democrat; or Thompson, the Republican?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Clinton Total Thompson Undec./Other
Current Total 49 45 6 =100
Red states 43 51 6 =100
Blue states 55 39 6 =100
Trend
6/20-21/07 53 42 5 =100
10a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between Barack Obama, the Democrat; and Fred Thompson, the Republican. (Choices rotated) Who would you be more likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Obama, the Democrat; or Thompson, the Republican?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Obama Total Thompson Undec./Other
Current Total 52 39 9 =100
Red states 44 48 8 =100
Blue states 60 30 10 =100
Trend
6/20-21/07 53 39 8 =100
11a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between John Edwards, the Democrat; and Fred Thompson, the Republican. (Choices rotated) Who would you be more likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Edwards, the Democrat; or Thompson, the Republican?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Edwards Total Thompson Undec./Other
Current Total 53 39 8 =100
Red states 49 44 7 =100
Blue states 57 35 8 =100
Trend
6/20-21/07 54 38 8 =100
12. If New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg were to run as an INDEPENDENT presidential candidate in 2008, how likely would you be to vote for him? Would you say ... (READ)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Very Somewhat Not too Not at
likely likely likely all likely DK
Current Total 4 18 20 47 11 =100
Red states 5 20 18 47 10 =100
Blue states 3 15 22 49 11 =100
Republicans 3 11 26 52 8 =100
Democrats 2 20 16 51 11 =100
Independents 7 23 21 38 11 =100
Trends
6/20-21/07 5 21 24 41 9 =100
11/5-6/98
(Ross Perot)(6) 12 15 14 58 1 =100
READ INTRO TO Q13ab-Q16ab TO ALL RVs: (RV1=1,3): Now I'm going to ask how you would vote if Michael Bloomberg ran as an Independent presidential candidate against some different Republican and Democratic candidates. For each one, please tell me how you would vote if the election were being held TODAY.
Order randomized for questions 13ab-16ab.
13a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE among Hillary Clinton, the Democrat; Rudy Giuliani, the Republican; and Michael Bloomberg, the Independent. (Democrat and Republican choices rotated) Who would you be most likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Clinton, the Democrat; Giuliani, the Republican; or Bloomberg, the Independent?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Total Total
Clinton Giuliani Bloomberg Undec./Other
Current Total 44 38 11 7 =100
Red states 39 43 12 6 =100
Blue states 50 33 9 8 =100
Trend
6/20-21/07 46 37 11 6 =100
14a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE among Barack Obama, the Democrat; Rudy Giuliani, the Republican; and Michael Bloomberg, the Independent. (Democrat and Republican choices rotated) Who would you be most likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Obama, the Democrat; Giuliani, the Republican; or Bloomberg, the Independent?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Total Total
Obama Giuliani Bloomberg Undec./Other
Current Total 43 39 10 8 =100
Red states 40 41 12 7 =100
Blue states 47 36 8 9 =100
Trend
6/20-21/07 44 38 11 7 =100
15a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE among Hillary Clinton, the Democrat; Mitt Romney, the Republican; and Michael Bloomberg, the Independent. (Democrat and Republican choices rotated) Who would you be most likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Clinton, the Democrat; Romney, the Republican; or Bloomberg, the Independent?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Total Total
Clinton Romney Bloomberg Undec./Other
Current Total 46 33 13 8 =100
Red states 40 37 16 7 =100
Blue states 51 30 10 9 =100
16a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE among Barack Obama, the Democrat; Mitt Romney, the Republican; and Michael Bloomberg, the Independent. (Democrat and Republican choices rotated) Who would you be most likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Obama, the Democrat; Romney, the Republican; or Bloomberg, the Independent?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Total Total
Obama Romney Bloomberg Undec./Other
Current Total 46 32 16 10 =100
Red states 40 36 15 9 =100
Blue states 52 28 10 10 =100
17. Turning to some different questions ... What is your overall opinion of George W. Bush? Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Favorable Unfavorable DK
Current Total 34 58 8 =100
Republicans 73 19 8 =100
Democrats 7 83 10 =100
Independents 22 66 12 =100
Trends
10/27-29/04 52 43 5 =100
10/21-22/04 50 47 3 =100
10/14-15/04 51 45 4 =100
9/30-10/2/04 49 46 5 =100
9/9-10/04 52 44 4 =100
9/2-3/04 55 40 5 =100
7/29-30/04 48 48 4 =100
7/8-9/04 51 45 4 =100
5/13-14/04 46 46 8 =100
4/8-9/04 48 46 6 =100
3/25-26/04 51 44 5 =100
3/18-19/04 52 42 6 =100
2/19-20/04 49 47 4 =100
2/24-25/00 55 36 9 =100
1/17-19/00 66 26 8 =100
10/21-24/99 71 21 8 =100
18. In deciding which presidential candidate to support in 2008, which ONE of the following issues is most important to you...(READ AND ROTATE 1-7)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Rep Dem Ind
22 The economy and jobs 14 30 19
19 Iraq 13 26 19
17 Health care 14 22 15
15 Terrorism and national security 27 5 14
10 Taxes and government spending 16 4 11
7 Immigration 10 3 8
5 The environment and global warming 1 7 8
1 Other/None of these (vol.) 2 * 1
4 Don't know 3 3 5
100 100 100 100
19. On the subject of Iraq ... All in all, do you think the situation in Iraq is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Current 8/1-2/07(7)
26 Getting better 16
29 Getting worse 41
42 About the same 38
3 Don't know 5
100 100
20. Some people say we should have a third major political party in this country, in addition to the Democrats and Republicans. Do you agree or disagree?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Current 6/20-21/07 4/7-16/06(8) 10/15-19/03 8/27-9/8/98 7/25-28/96
54 Agree 57 53 46 46 58
39 Disagree 36 40 44 47 37
7 Don't know 7 7 10 7 5
100 100 100 100 100 100
21. Do you think the current method of nominating presidential candidates gives too much power to the very first states to vote, or not?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Current 5/10-13/00(9)
48 Yes 50
40 No 36
12 Don't know 14
100 100
22. How much would you say you know about Michael Bloomberg and what he stands for... (READ)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Current 6/20-21/07
4 A lot 6
20 Some 25
40 Only a little, OR 36
35 Nothing at all? 32
1 Don't know 1
100 100
23. From what you know about how Michael Bloomberg has handled his job as mayor of New York City, do you think he would make a good president, or not?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Current 6/20-21/07
24 Yes, would 29
33 No, would not 30
43 Don't know 41
100 100
24. From what you know about Michael Bloomberg's political views, do you think of him as liberal, moderate, or conservative?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Current 6/20-21/07
12 Liberal 16
33 Moderate 36
13 Conservative 12
42 Don't know 36
100 100
25. Suppose Michael Bloomberg spends between 500 million and one billion dollars of his own money to finance an independent candidacy for president. Would such use of his personal fortune make you more likely or less likely to vote for him -- or would it not make much difference either way?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Current 6/20-21/07
10 Make more likely 10
17 Make less likely 16
70 Wouldn't make much difference 70
3 Don't know 4
100 100
D2. Regardless of how you might have voted in recent elections, in politics TODAY, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?
D2a. As of TODAY do you LEAN more toward the Republican Party or the Democratic Party?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
31 Republican
33 Democrat
29 Independent
3 No party/Not interested in politics (VOL.)
1 Other party (VOL.)
3 Don't know
100
40 Total Republican/Lean Republican
46 Total Democrat/Lean Democratic
END OF INTERVIEW. THANK RESPONDENT: That completes the interview. Thank you very much for your cooperation.
(1) Trend results for Thursday night interviewing only
(n=186).
(2) Trend results for Other candidate include Mike Gravel.
(3) Trend results for Other candidate include Michael Bloomberg and Mike
Gravel.
(4) Trend results for Other candidate include Sam Brownback and Tommy
Thompson
(5) Trend results for Other candidate include Michael Bloomberg, Jim
Gilmore, Sam Brownback, and Tommy Thompson.
(6) Trend wording read "If Ross Perot were to run again as a third party
presidential candidate in the year 2000, how likely would you be to
vote for him?" Results based on total adults.
(7) Trend results based on total adults.
(8) 1996-2006 trends from Pew Research Center, based on total adults.
(9) Trend results from a CBS News/New York Times poll, based on total
adults.
Source: NEWSWEEK
CONTACT: LaVenia LaVelle of NEWSWEEK, +1-212-445-4859
Web site: http://www.newsweek.msnbc.com/
